Bukayo Saka and Ben White return to training ahead of Newcastle clash in the Carabao Cup semi-final.

Arsenal secured a commanding 5-1 win against Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, sending a clear message to Premier League leaders Liverpool. This resounding victory demonstrated that the Gunners are still serious contenders in the race for the title.

It was an essential statement victory for Mikel Arteta’s team, who have been striving to solidify their title credentials. This decisive result nearly ended Manchester City’s slim chances of returning to the title race. However, despite the win, Arsenal still face a tough challenge in their pursuit of the Premier League title.

Sunday’s performance was one of the most remarkable of Arteta’s time as manager. It showcased the team’s ability to go on a winning run, reminiscent of their surge following a 3-1 victory over Liverpool at the same point last season.

However, the gap at the top remains significant, with Liverpool holding a strong lead. Opta’s supercomputer confirms this, showing that Arsenal’s chances of winning the title remain slim despite their impressive victory.

According to Opta, Liverpool continue to be the strong favorites to win the Premier League. After their 2-0 victory over Bournemouth, Liverpool have managed to navigate three tough away games this season without losing.

The supercomputer gives Liverpool a 90.74% probability of securing their second Premier League title, predicting they will end the season with 88.4 points. Despite their statement win, Arsenal are expected to finish with 79.82 points, giving them only a 9.18% chance of winning the title.

Beyond Arsenal and Liverpool, only three other teams—Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, and Chelsea—have any real chance of winning the league, but their probabilities are very low. Manchester City, on track for their lowest points tally under Guardiola, are still expected to finish in the top four, alongside surprise contenders Nottingham Forest.

Meanwhile, Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League depend on improving their coefficient ranking, with an expected fifth-place finish.

Elsewhere in the league, Opta forecasts little movement among mid-table teams. Both Manchester United and Tottenham are expected to have historically poor seasons, with United set to finish with just 47.65 points—their lowest-ever Premier League total—while Spurs are projected to slightly outperform their 46-point total from the 2007/08 season. West Ham, under Graham Potter, are predicted to struggle, finishing 15th.

At the bottom, Wolves improved their survival chances with a 2-0 win over Aston Villa, reducing their relegation probability to 18.41%. Ipswich, despite a 2-1 loss to Southampton, now have better odds of avoiding relegation than Leicester City, who are expected to finish 18th with just a 10.9% chance of survival.